Top fund manager Mark Mobius said economic risks remain “benign” in emerging Asian markets, including the Philippines, where he believes the assumption to office of President Rodrigo Duterte would be “good” for the country in the long run.
Mobius, who has spent more than 40 years working in emerging markets all over the world, said in a television interview that investors should not be overly concerned over Duterte’s firebrand image, given that the Philippine president belongs to a new wave of “more populist leaders” across the globe who are effective in implementing law and order in their respective countries, “which is a good thing.”
“I think the marketing impact is going to be good to longer term. Once he (Mr. Duterte) gets his house in order….I think he’s going to be softening and you’re going to see the reform taking place,” said Mobius, who is executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group.
When asked if he does not see anything negative about Mr. Duterte’s use of colorful language, Mobius said: “No I really don’t. I think we’re seeing this globally, more populist leaders, people who are effective in pushing down crime and corruption. You’re seeing that all over the world, which I think is a good thing.”
In his interview with Bloomberg, of which excerpts where published in the local media, Mobius said concerns about the Philippines and Duterte are “overdone” considering that other countries in Asia, like Indonesia and Thailand, are also dealing with their own political issues.
“I don’t see downside anywhere, because there are individual problems in each country. There’s concern about Duterte and the Philippines which I think is overdone. There are concerns about reform in Indonesia; in Thailand, the political environment may be questionable. But all in all, the situation looks pretty benign in Asia,” he said.
This “benign” situation, Mobius said, also includes the Philippines, where a successful campaign against crime and corruption spearheaded by Duterte “will be very positive for the [country].”
Besides Mobius, even the World Bank has come up with optimistic projections about the Philippine economy on the Duterte watch, with the country expected to sustain its growth and even surpass current forecasts if the government proceeds with its plan to accelerate spending in infrastructure.
In a press statement posted on its website, the World Bank said “the Philippines remains one of the fastest growing economies in East Asia and the Pacific despite the weak global economy,” and said its government could achieve its goals of attaining inclusive growth and reducing poverty.
In a press statement, the Bank’s lead economist Birgit Hansl pointed to the reforms being undertaken by the Duterte administration in the fields of tax policy and administration, government spending, security of land tenure, ease of doing business, and restrictions on foreign participation in local businesses.
“The country’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow 6.4 percent this year and 6.2 percent in the next two years,” the World Bank statement said.
“The Philippine economy may surpass the forecasts if authorities can further ramp up spending on public infrastructure as planned,” said the World Bank in its Philippine Economic Update titled ‘Outperforming the Region and Managing the Transition.’
In its press statement, the World Bank pointed out that Mara Warwick, its Country Director for the Philippines, has said that “macroeconomic stability puts the Philippines in a good position to accelerate inclusive growth that benefits all Filipinos.”
According to the World Bank, its report noted that “as economic growth is sustained, and as spending on health, education, and social protection expands, extreme poverty is projected to decline from 10.6 percent in 2012 to 7.8 percent in 2016, 7.2 percent in 2017, and 6.7 percent in 2018.”
The Bank also pointed out that 40 percent of the planned government spending on infrastructure in 2017 will be for roads, railways, seaports and airports. “This can boost a large segment of the economy including industrial activities, real estate, construction, and tourism,” the report said.
The World Bank report also took note of the Duterte administration’s plan to pursue comprehensive tax policy reforms as one of its priorities, “to make the country’s tax system more equitable, efficient, and competitive in the region.”
In its press statement, the Bank’s lead economist Hansl said that “domestic consumption will also continue to prop up the economy, driven by three factors: rising purchases from an expanding middle-class, remittances from overseas Filipino workers, and the expansion of jobs as a result of the growing economy.”
“Many reforms are being unveiled, specifically on tax policy and administration, the tracking of government spending, security of land tenure, ease of doing business, and restrictions on foreign participation,” said Hansl.
“The completion of the new Philippine Development Plan this year will provide more clarity on the government’s development priorities and further improve the country’s growth prospects,” Hansl added.
Warwick was quoted by the World Bank as saying that “Poverty will decline faster if the returns from economic expansion are invested in building human capital by strengthening health, education, and social protection.”
“Currently, the poor are concentrated in the agriculture sector, where increases in productivity would generate higher incomes for rural dwellers. Achieving this will require a comprehensive rural development strategy, which is among the priorities of the current administration,” she added.