“The headline inflation eased to 4.4% YOY in September 2014, from a 4.9% level for the past two months. The deceleration is associated to the slower annual growth in heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverage index, and lower prices in household utilities, gas and other fuels, and transportation. Core inflation remained at 3.4% since August 2014.”
CONSUMER PRICES,
YEAR-ON-YEAR (%) |
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||
January-September | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | |||||||
September | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | |||||||
CORE INFLATION,
YEAR-ON-YEAR (%) |
|||||||||||
January-September | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | |||||||
September | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | |||||||
Source: PSA |
“Of 11 commodity groups, 6 had higher inflation level from a month ago; 3 had lower inflation; and 1 had the same inflation. Though most of the commodity groups posted increases, this is minimal compared to the deceleration of heavier-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages, household utilities, and transport.”
2014 MONTHLY INFLATION (in %) | |||||||
September | August | July | |||||
HEADLINE INFLATION | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | ||||
Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.2 | ||||
Alcoholic beverages | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | ||||
Clothing and footwear | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | ||||
Housing, water & electricity | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | ||||
Furnishings, household equipment | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | ||||
Health | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | ||||
Transport | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | ||||
Communications | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Recreation | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||||
Education | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||||
Restaurants | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | ||||
CORE INFLATION | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | ||||
Source: PSA | |||||||
“Food inflation posted a downward trend for the month of September. This is associated to the slower annual increases on rice, vegetable, and bread and cereals while the other major food items rose.”
FOOD INFLATION 2014 | September | August | July | ||||
Food | 7.4 | 8.3
|
8.2
|
||||
Rice | 10.7
|
13.2
|
14.1
|
||||
Corn | 8.3
|
8.1
|
7.8
|
||||
Fruit | 10.0
|
8.3
|
5.8
|
||||
Vegetables | 8.8
|
16.0
|
16.1
|
||||
Meat | 6.8
|
6.8
|
5.1
|
||||
Fish | 6.6
|
6.4
|
5.8
|
||||
Sugar & chocolate | 7.8
|
7.6
|
7.1
|
||||
Milk, cheese & eggs | 4.5
|
4.2
|
3.6
|
||||
Oils & fats | 7.5
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
||||
Bread & cereals | 8.8
|
10.7
|
11.5
|
||||
Source: PSA |
“The economy successfully reversed inflationary expectations through a decisive reduction in food inflation in September. This favorable development will enable the BSP to avoid further tightening of monetary policy and will enable the attainment of a higher GDP growth rate in the second semester. The DA and DTI should continue streamlining the delivery of products to the markets and should act more decisively if there are factors that constrain the process. Meanwhile, the government should implement longer-term solutions to the port and transport congestion.”